2024 Barley Harvest: What does it mean for 2025 malt prices?

Every growing season brings its own unique challenges and surprises, and the 2024 barley harvest has been no different.

In this article, members of our in-house grain trading department – Rob Austin and Sarah Hynes – provide an overview of the 2024 barley harvest in the UK..

They also provide a detailed summary of the current market situation, offering an insight into what this could mean for malt pricing in 2025.

Please note: This article was originally published on 09/09/24, while the spring barley harvest is still ongoing in the north of the UK. This article will be updated once spring barley harvest in the north has been completed.

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Autumn weather woes

The wet weather that the UK experienced from autumn 2023 through to spring 2024 has shaped the size of this year’s barley crop significantly.

Autumn started beautifully but, in early October, heavy rainfall began – and it didn’t really stop too much for the next six months!

In fact, data from the Met Office shows that:

During winter 2023, most of the UK experienced considerably above average rainfall based on the 30-year average (1991-2020).
During winter 2023, the vast majority of England and Wales, and some of Scotland, experienced considerably fewer hours of sunshine based on the 30-year average.
During spring 2024, all of England and Wales and eastern Scotland experienced considerably above average rainfall based on the 30-year average.
During spring 2024, all of the UK experienced considerably fewer hours of sunshine based on the 30-year average.

The weather meant that any farmer who had delayed autumn drilling to try and control blackgrass – one of the most problematic and damaging agricultural weeds for winter wheat that can lead to massive yield losses – couldn’t get their winter wheat fields drilled.+

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Impact of the poor weather

This lower winter cropping area meant an increase in spring cropping in England – in particular spring barley. Nationwide data from DEFRA highlights the stark comparisons from 2023 to 2024, with:

The winter wheat area down 11% from 1.58million hectares to 1.40million hectares.
The winter barley area down 17% from 391,000 hectares to 325,000 hectares.
The spring barley area up 28% from 408,000 hectares to 524,000 hectares.

Overall, the total cereal area (also including oats and oilseed rape) in England for harvest 2024 was 2.65million hectares, the lowest it has been for four decades and considerably lower than the five-year average of 2.93million hectares.

Interestingly, a similar wet weather pattern during autumn 2023 and spring 2024 was experienced across the whole of Western Europe, with France – Europe’s largest winter wheat producer – harvesting their lowest winter wheat crop for 40 years.

2024 Barley Harvest – UK Winter Barley

In the south of the UK, harvest results for winter barley have followed the trend set by neighbouring France, with low sunlight in the key flowering period resulting in disappointing yields in many areas.

A combination of low yields, low specific weights and – in some cases – high screenings, has seen reductions of up to 20% on contracted tonnages of winter barley. Nitrogen levels have been low across the board, which is potentially the result of heavy winter rainfall diluting the soil of its nitrogen reserves.

In Scotland and northern England, the picture is largely similar. We have witnessed significantly lower nitrogen levels compared to 2023 and, in some instances, the lowest ever. Yields, meanwhile, have been disappointing, averaging 15-20% below the five-year average.

Screenings levels have been variable but did get better as harvest progressed, with earlier barleys the thinnest. This mixed quality is no doubt a direct result from the excess rainfall and significant lack of sunshine experienced throughout the season.

2024 Barley Harvest – UK Spring Barley

However, the story for spring barley – especially in England so far – has been much more positive.

Unlike France, the UK experienced a sunny end to the spring. Sunlight at the point of flowering combined with frequent rainfall has meant that, largely speaking, spring barley crops grown in the south of the UK have had near perfect conditions.

Closer to harvest, the UK summer was largely dry, meaning that much of the spring barley being delivered into our Tivetshall Maltings has been harvested in excellent conditions. As a result, yields have been good – often above average – and quality has been excellent.

In Scotland and northern England, the weather meant farmers planted later than usual – end of April right through the first three weeks in May in some instances. However, like the south, the sunshine that followed combined with the moist soil conditions led to near-perfect establishment.

Currently, as expected, the spring barley harvest is behind last year in terms of progress and was 50% completed at the time of publishing. So far, quality has been similar to the south, with low nitrogen levels comfortably under 1.60 and good retentions, which is largely holding up in the later sown barley. Yields, however, have been mixed, while moistures have been higher than desired in some instances and skinned corns are becoming more prevalent.

Cereal Market Overview

With a higher sown acreage, higher yields and very good harvest quality, the supply of spring barley is extremely good and is arguably outstripping short-term demand.

The spot premium for malting barley over feed barley is significantly reduced for the same week 12 months ago. This means that, in the short-term, power has switched from the seller to the buyer. To add to the UK farmer’s woes, the base price of global agricultural commodities has trended lower since the start of the year.

The main reason for this is the huge potential of this year’s maize crop in the USA, with its cheap price being offered globally driving lower feed markets.

This could affect cropping decisions for UK farmers this autumn and change potential availability for harvest 2025.

The margins for winter barley for farmers, for example, have been poor, while the expansion of Sustainable Farming Incentives (SFIs) in England – a government scheme that pays farmers and land managers to adopt and maintain sustainable farming practices – may affect farmers’ cropping decisions further. That’s all long before we’ve even discussed the weather!

Globally, it’s also important to note that in the latest USDA monthly data, stocks to use ratio on global wheat is more than 30%, while global barley continues to fall and is now at less than 15%. This highlights that we are now, without doubt, in a global market and that any major problem in production from a key global supplier could reverse the recent downward price trend.

Conclusion

Considering the poor weather experienced in autumn 2023 and spring 2024, the 2024 barley harvest in southern England has been much better than expected.

The same can largely be said for Scotland and northern England, although it’s important to caveat this as we’re still less than halfway through spring barley intake at our sites and catchy forecasts are currently inhibiting harvesting in some regions.

With quality holding up to date and an increase in the area planted, the increased supply of good quality spring barley may help the buyer this year.

However, we have learned – particularly in recent years – that both weather and politics on a global scale can change things very quickly, so market volatility is expected to continue.